One moneyline favourite and the opposite sides of two game totals make up Friday’s MLB parlay picks.
The pregame narrative: The Kansas City Royals have a pitching advantage over the Philadelphia Phillies that I’m looking to exploit. Also, fade offence in the Milwaukee Brewers and Oakland Athletics game while backing the over in the San Francisco Giants and Seattle Mariners matchup.
Check out the best MLB parlay picks for Friday, August 23.
MLB parlay picks
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Parlay: Royals moneyline + Brewers/Athletics under 8.5 runs + Giants/Mariners over 7 runs (+449)
Royals moneyline (-132): Kansas City has a tough opponent in Philadelphia, but I want to highlight Phillies’ starter Taijuan Walker’s recent struggles.
Walker (3-4, 5.69 ERA) hasn’t been great in his shortened season. He’s given up three or more earned runs in six of his last seven starts.
I don’t like his chances of having a strong outing against the Royals’ offence.
Kansas City is top-five in runs per game (5.2) and has been even better over the last 12 games, scoring 6.0 runs per game. The side is 8-4 over that frame.
Michael Wacha (10-6, 3.33 ERA) takes the mound for the Royals, which gives me added confidence in taking their moneyline.
Philadelphia is a tough matchup but Wacha has been one of the best pitchers in the majors since May 9. He is 11-4 over that span with a 2.42 ERA. He held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in 11 of those 13 starts.
Other parlay picks
Brewers/Athletics under 8.5 runs (-148): I expect both starting pitchers to do enough to keep the score low in this game.
Let’s start with Brewers’ starter Aaron Civale (4-8, 4.78 ERA). He’s been rather unimpressive this season but has more than his fair share of quality starts and there’s potential for another tonight.
He’s coming off a strong outing against the Cleveland Guardians who field a more threatening lineup than the Athletics. Civale gave up just four hits and no runs through six innings of work.
In a small 15-plate-appearance sample size, Oakland’s bats have two hits off Civale with five strikeouts.
JP Sears (10-8, 4.15 ERA) gets the start for the Athletics and he’s had four straight strong showings. He’s pitched seven-plus innings in each of those games, giving up just five runs total.
The Brewers’ offence is a lot to handle but six of their last seven games have stayed under this total. That includes yesterday’s 3-0 shutout loss to the St. Louis Cardinals.
Giants/Mariners over 7 runs (-120): Now that the less exciting leg is done, let’s close out the ticket with the more exciting play, an over.
Luis Castillo (10-12, 3.51 ERA) starts for Seattle and he’s the better pitcher in this matchup. But I still think the Giants can contribute a few runs to the total.
Over Castillo’s last four starts, he gave up three or more runs three times. If San Fran can get on the board even with even a few scores, it would be hugely beneficial in cashing the over on this low total.
The Giants counter by starting rookie Hayden Birdsong (3-3, 5.01 ERA).
The 22-year-old started the year strong but has allowed 13 earned runs over his last three starts (11.0 innings).
Birdsong struggles with walks, ranking in the eighth percentile for walk rate (12.4%), according to Baseball Savant.
Allowing free base runners gives ample opportunity for opponents to drive in runs.
Picks made at 11:25 a.m. on 08/23/24.
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Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.