The Toronto Blue Jays host the Los Angeles Angels for some Friday night baseball.
The pregame narrative: Tonight’s matchup is far from a pitcher’s duel. Chris Bassitt and Jack Kochanowicz take the mound for Toronto and L.A., respectively, and I don’t trust either to perform. Back Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s bases prop and take the over.
Check out the best Blue Jays picks vs. the Angels on Aug. 23.
Blue Jays picks vs. Angels
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Best Bet: Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+105)
Guerrero’s bases prop is worth a look any time it’s at plus money.
Simply put, Vladdy has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball. He’s slashing .371/.429/.753 with 21 doubles and 17 home runs over the last 50 games, cashing this wager 60% of the time.
He went 0-for-3 last night but has still cleared this mark in two of his last four and three of his last six outings.
Tonight presents a nice opportunity for him to get back on the horse.
Kochanowicz is an inexperienced arm with a mixed bag of results in the majors. He has a 6.53 ERA through four starts and got lit up by the Oakland Athletics and Seattle Mariners before logging quality starts against the Washington Nations and Atlanta Braves.
His minor-league stats also aren’t anything to write home about.
Kochanowicz posted a 4.50 ERA and 7.6 K/9 rate in 102.0 IP in Double-A before his call-up in July.
The 23-year-old righty throws a high-90s sinker 64% of the time, according to Baseball Savant, and that’s a pitch Guerrero should feast against.
Key stat: Guerrero is batting .292 against fastballs above 95mph this season.
Quick pick
Over 8.5 runs (-122): Toronto’s offence is on quite a tear. Since August 11 it ranks first in home runs (21), extra-base hits (47), and SLG (.488).
I can’t see Kochanowicz cooling those bats and also don’t trust Bassitt to have a decent outing.
The veteran right-hander is in a bad place right now. He has a 6.91 ERA in eight starts since July 1 with an .296/.374/.497 opponent slash line.
The Angels’ offence is anemic but Bassitt is giving up plenty of hard contact (eight HR in last six starts) and has struggled to perform at Rogers Centre this year.
His 4.67 home ERA is noticeably higher than his 3.90 road ERA.
Picks made at 9:13 a.m. on 08/23/24.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.