For the third and final time, the Los Angeles Dodgers host the Seattle Mariners tonight in interleague play.
The pregame narrative: Logan Gilbert and Jack Flaherty combine for a compelling matchup on the mound, and I’m backing both of them in the prop market. Flaherty is part of a plus-money parlay with Freddie Freeman.
Check out my Mariners vs. Dodgers prop picks for Aug. 21.
Mariners vs. Dodgers prop picks
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Best Bet: Gilbert over 5.5 Ks (-125)
As long as he doesn’t suffer an early-inning blowup, Gilbert should be relied upon to cash this strikeout prop.
Since the start of July, Gilbert has gone over 5.5 Ks in seven of eight starts. The exception was a disastrous outing against the Red Sox in which he allowed seven runs on seven hits over 2.2 innings.
Gilbert has one of the lowest walk rates in the majors (4.7%, 94th percentile). That’s a good way to keep his pitch count in check and ensure he can work deep into games.
He also has the stuff to go right after guys, playing off his mid-90s fastball with three pitches that have a whiff rate of 33.3% or higher. For context, the league-average whiff rate is 25.1%.
The Dodgers aren’t a plus matchup for strikeout props, but they aren’t a bad one, either. They rank 15th in MLB in K rate against right-handed pitchers.
And Gilbert just so happens to have some strong numbers against the current L.A. lineup. He’s collected 15 Ks versus just 10 hits allowed in 54 plate appearances.
Last year, Gilbert struck out six batters over 5.0 innings in his lone outing against the Dodgers.
Key stat: Gilbert has gone over 5.5 Ks in 18 of 25 starts. He’s averaging 6.2 strikeouts per outing this year.
Quick picks
Parlay: Flaherty 7+ Ks, Freeman 1+ hits (+104): I’m a little hesitant to ride with Flaherty on his standard strikeout line, so I’m teasing it down a bit in a plus-money combo wager.
Flaherty is having a stellar season that includes a career-high 11.5 K/9. He has seven or more strikeouts in all three starts since becoming a Dodger.
The Mariners have the highest K rate in the majors, and Flaherty has already torched them in the past. Seattle’s current lineup has struck out 23 times in just 59 plate appearances against him (39.0% K rate).
One hit from Freeman boosts this play up from -210 to its current price.
Freeman, who’s batting .313 against righties this year, has the platoon advantage over Gilbert. They’ve never gone head-to-head before, but one hit should be a reasonable ask for the eight-time all-star.
In August, Freeman is 17-for-55 (.309) and has cashed this bet in 11 of 14 games.
Picks made at 1:20 p.m. ET 08/21/2024.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.