Justin Verlander returns to the Houston Astros’ rotation today for an afternoon matchup against the Boston Red Sox.
The pregame narrative: After two months on the injured list with neck discomfort, Verlander is back on the mound to try to help Houston win this three-game set. My best bet is a plus-money parlay involving Verlander and Alex Bregman.
Check out my Red Sox vs. Astros prop picks for Aug. 21.
Red Sox vs. Astros prop picks
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Best Bet: Verlander 5+ Ks, Bregman 1+ hits (+106)
You never know exactly what you’re going to get from a pitcher coming off an extended absence, but I think Verlander is well-positioned to clear this strikeout total today.
For one thing, the Red Sox are one of the most strikeout-friendly teams in baseball. They have the league’s third-highest K rate (24.9%) and the fifth-highest whiff rate (27.6%).
Each of Boston’s past six opposing starters recorded at least five strikeouts.
Verlander, who’s averaging 5.1 Ks per start this year, should add to that. I don’t want to overvalue minor league stats, but he was sharp in a pair of rehab appearances this month: 7.0 IP, two runs, eight Ks.
The -175 juice on Verlander’s strikeout prop is a lot, so I’ve added another leg to get this bet into plus-money territory.
Bregman attacks right-handed pitching well and should be counted on for a hit today.
This season, Bregman is batting .279 with a 127 wRC+ against RHPs. He went 0-for-4 last night but had an eight-game hit streak right before that.
Cooper Criswell, who has bounced in and out of Boston’s rotation, has allowed a .348 opponent batting average over his past seven appearances.
Key stat: Verlander has nine strikeouts in 25 plate appearances against the current Red Sox lineup (36.0%).
Quick picks
Yainer Diaz over 0.5 RBI (+140): If Houston is able to feast on a struggling Criswell, Diaz should be right at the centre of it.
The third-year catcher has three straight games with a home run and four straight with multiple hits. He has 12 RBI over his past 11 games and has cashed this prop eight times in that span.
Diaz bats in the No. 3 or 4 spot for Houston, which is a great spot to be in a front-loaded lineup.
Picks made at 11:50 a.m. ET 08/21/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.