Shota Imanaga and the Chicago Cubs look to finish off a three-game sweep over the Toronto Blue Jays at Wrigley Field on Sunday afternoon.
The pregame narrative: Toronto will see Imanaga for the first time today, and I like the plus-money odds on his strikeout prop. I’m also betting the over on bases props for two sluggers, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Seiya Suzuki.
Check out the best Blue Jays props vs. the Cubs on Aug. 18.
Blue Jays props vs. Cubs
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Best bet: Imanaga over 5.5 Ks (+110)
For most of the season, the Blue Jays have been one of the toughest strikeout matchups in the majors. In fact, they still have the seventh-lowest K rate (20.4%).
But given Toronto’s roster upheaval at the trade deadline, it isn’t totally fair to grade this team on its season-long numbers. Since the calendar flipped to August, high-strikeout guys like Leo Jimenez, Addison Barger and Joey Loperfido have drawn into the lineup regularly.
So far this month, Toronto has the 12th-highest K rate (24.0%). Not such a bad matchup after all.
Now that that’s established, let’s talk about Imanaga. The former NPB star averages more than a strikeout per inning (9.2 K/9) and he has worked into the sixth inning or later in 16 of 22 starts.
That alone provides a nice baseline for this wager. As does the fact that no one on the Jays has faced him before, which I think works in the pitcher’s favour.
Imanaga has an elite swing-and-miss for lefties (sweeper) and righties (split-finger). Both pitches have a K rate and whiff rate above 35.0%, per Baseball Savant.
What Imanaga does best is garner out-of-zone swings. He ranks in the 98th percentile in chase rate (35.5%). Ideally, those chase pitches either lead to foul balls that put the count in his favour or whiffs that result in a strikeout.
In August, Toronto has the seventh-highest whiff rate in the majors (29.9%).
Key stat: Imanaga has gone over 5.5 Ks in 13 of his past 18 starts.
Quick picks
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+110): Even if Imanaga piles up punchouts against Toronto, I cannot ignore a plus-money bases prop for Guerrero.
Since the all-star break, Guerrero has an MLB-high .893 slugging percentage. For context, there are only 12 hitters with an OPS higher than that this season.
After ripping a double at Wrigley yesterday, Guerrero has cashed this bases prop in 20 of his past 28 games.
Imanaga has the lowest walk rate in the NL (1.3 BB/9), which bodes well for Guerrero’s chances to reach base with a hit. And Imanaga has been hittable, allowing a .790 opponent OPS over his past nine starts.
Suzuki over 1.5 bases (+130): Suzuki turns 30 today, and while that doesn’t factor into my prediction I do hope he celebrates with a productive day at the plate.
The outfielder only has a .507 SLG over his past 20 games and should match up well against Bowden Francis, who struggles in righty-on-righty matchups.
Francis has allowed righties to post a .518 SLG against him this year (compared to a .404 SLG from lefties).
Suzuki has fared well against RHPs on the season, posting a .269/.333/.483 slash line (good for a 127 wRC+).
Picks made at 9:25 a.m. on 08/18/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.