In the final game of the night, the Los Angeles Angels host Chris Sale and the Atlanta Braves.
The pregame narrative: I’m fading Sale tonight against an Angels squad that rarely racks up strikeouts against left-handed starters. My other prop bets involve Marcell Ozuna, Michael Harris II and Zach Neto.
Check out my Braves vs. Angels prop picks for Aug. 17.
Braves vs. Angels prop picks
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Best Bet: Ozuna over 1.5 bases (-113)
Griffin Canning is going through it right now, and I think Ozuna is as well-positioned as anyone to pounce on the Angels starter.
Canning has allowed a .294/.360/.493 slash line to opponents in seven starts since the beginning of July. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the bottom 25 percentile in xERA, xBA, K rate and average exit velocity.
Enter Ozuna, who’s having a stellar season within an otherwise underperforming Braves lineup.
The all-star designated hitter leads the NL in RBI (90) and has a .954 OPS — his highest OPS aside from the COVID-shortened 2020 season.
Ozuna ranks in the 94th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. He’s a certified masher.
From the No. 3 spot, Ozuna should have a fair shot to cash his RBI prop (+128). But a lack of production from the hitters ahead of him has led to six straight games without an RBI, so I’m opting for a prop that is totally within his control.
Ozuna is 2-for-3 with a home run against Canning.
Key stat: In his past 10 games, Ozuna has cashed this prop seven times while posting a 1.056 OPS.
Quick picks
Sale under 7.5 Ks (-112): Sale is the odds-on NL Cy Young favourite, so if you don’t want to fade him right now I totally understand. This is a perfectly attainable strikeout total for the NL’s K/9 leader (11.8).
So why, after Sale’s back-to-back performances with 10-plus Ks, am I fading him?
Because the Angels pose a concerning matchup. It’s not that they excel against lefties (100 wRC+ vs. LHPs this year), but they tend to keep their strikeouts to a minimum.
L.A. has a 19.7% K rate against southpaws this year, which is the sixth-lowest in MLB. And only four of the past 40 (!) starters to face the Angels have cleared this total.
Sale collects eight-plus Ks more often than not, but I’m not buying it in this matchup. He’s only faced two active Angels hitters, and I expect the new faces to get the bat on the ball.
Parlay: Harris, Neto 1+ hits each (+114): Michael Harris has recorded a hit in all three games since returning from the injured list and should be able to keep that up tonight.
Harris, the 2022 NL Rookie of the Year, bats leadoff for the Braves and is relied upon to rake in lefty-right matchups. He owns a .291 BA against righties in his career.
On the flip side, Canning has allowed a .278 BA and an .861 OPS against lefties this season.
To turn this into a plus-money wager, I’m looking for Neto to also exploit a platoon advantage.
The L.A. shortstop is 16-for-45 (.356) in his past 11 games. He’s never faced Sale, but his track record against southpaws is impressive.
Neto has a .410/.459/.603 slash line against lefties this year.
Picks made at 1:40 p.m. ET 08/17/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.