The Toronto Blue Jays and Chicago Cubs play the second of three afternoon games at Wrigley Field on Saturday.
The pregame narrative: Chris Bassitt has struggled quite a bit recently, but he’s still finding ways to get strikeouts. I’m backing Bassitt alongside Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Nico Hoerner in a trio of plus-money prop bets.
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Blue Jays props vs. Cubs
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Best bet: Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+112)
New day, another Vladdy prop bet.
Even after Friday’s 0-for-5 showing, how could you not at least consider this bases prop on the better side of even money?
Guerrero, who recently ripped off a 22-game hit streak, has a 1.437 OPS since July 14. In that span, he’s gone over 1.5 bases in 19 of 27 games.
Unsurprisingly, Guerrero has boosted his season-long stats during this extended hot streak, too. He had a .799 OPS at the end of play on July 13, and now he’s up to a .940 OPS on the year.
But his numbers against lefties are even better.
Guerrero has the fourth-highest OPS versus southpaws this season (1.065 OPS), and he’ll face another one today in Cubs starter Justin Steele.
It’s been another solid season for Steele, who owns a 3.16 ERA through 19 starts. But Vladdy is still on an epic tear and looks like a bargain against any lefty at this price.
Key stat: Steele has allowed a .282 batting average and a .733 OPS over his past five starts.
Quick picks
Bassitt over 5.5 Ks (+123): Last time out, Bassitt had one of his most brutal outings of the season and still finished just one strikeout shy of this mark.
Against the A’s last Sunday, Bassitt gritted through a 41-pitch first inning and ended up striking out five over 4.0 frames. Now he’s on an extra day of rest with the hopes of resetting against the Cubs.
In his career, Bassitt’s K/9 is at its highest when he’s pitching on five days’ rest (8.6 K/9).
After a slow start to the year in the strikeout department, Bassitt has put up respectable numbers since late May. He’s cashed this bet in nine of his past 14 outings, averaging 5.7 Ks per start.
Hoerner over 0.5 runs (+125): This bet looked a bit more desirable when Hoerner was slotting into the lineup as a leadoff man, but he’s actually been scoring at a high clip from the No. 6 spot.
Hoerner has scored in 10 of his past 14 games and is batting .293 in that span.
Though I’m keen on Bassitt to hit a decent strikeout total, I think it could get messy along the way. Toronto’s right-hander has a 7.12 ERA over his past seven starts.
Hoerner doubled and scored off Bassitt when they faced last season in Toronto.
Picks made at 9:25 a.m. on 08/17/24.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.