The Toronto Blue Jays kick off a weekend series with the Chicago Cubs at Wrigley Field on Friday.
The pregame narrative: Kyle Hendricks takes the mound for the Cubs and it’s safe to say he’s having a disappointing season. For that reason, I’m backing two of Toronto’s sluggers in my prop picks for the game. Also, expect Yariel Rodriguez to top his strikeout total in Chicago.
Check out the best Blue Jays props vs. the Cubs on August 16.
Blue Jays props vs. Cubs
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Best bet: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. over 0.5 runs (-154)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is on a monumental run at the plate.
Since the all-star break, the Blue Jays slugger is slashing .457/.523/.957 with a 1.480 OPS. In that 25-game span, Vladdy hit 11 homers and scored 25 runs.
Today, Toronto’s offence sees a struggling Hendricks. In 16 starts, the righty has a 3-10 record with a 6.60 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He’s allowed five or more earned runs in half of those outings.
Those stats give insight as to why this run prop carries some juice but with how hot Vladdy is right now, it’s worth the squeeze.
Additionally, Hendricks throws a fastball 48% of the time with an average velocity of 87.8 miles per hour. That sits in the bottom one percentile, per Baseball Savant.
Guerrero has been tattooing fastballs all season. He hits .329 against the pitch with a low 17.1% whiff rate.
The hope is for Toronto’s lineup to drive him in once he presumably gets on base but the first baseman can also cash this ticket with his 26th homer of the season.
Key stat: Guerrero has scored a run in each of his last three games.
Quick picks
Horwitz over 0.5 runs (-118): Spencer Horwitz usually hits clean-up for the Jays but I believe there’s value in taking him to score a run this afternoon.
The bottom of Toronto’s batting order has been hot and it shows in Horwitz’s recent statlines. He’s scored five runs in the last four games.
One man who’s responsible for driving in a couple of those runs is Will Wagner. The Jays’ deadline acquisition has made his mark early. He has five hits in eight at-bats, resulting in three RBI across his first two games.
Another hot hitter is Ernie Clement. He had four hits in the L.A. Angels series, including a triple and home run in the final game on Thursday.
If Horwitz can get on base, there should be ample opportunity to drive him in against Hendricks.
Picks made at 10:08 a.m. on 08/16/24.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.