The Atlanta Braves look to sweep the San Francisco Giants.
The pregame narrative: Atlanta started this series 1.5 games clear of San Francisco for the NL’s final wild-card spot and a win tonight would put it 4.5 games up. Robbie Ray should rack up strikeouts for the Giants while Marcell Ozuna is my bet to record multiple bases.
Check out my Braves vs. Giants prop picks for August 14.
Braves vs. Giants prop picks
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Best Bet: Ray over 7.5 strikeouts (+120)
San Francisco took a big risk when it traded for Ray last offseason.
The 2021 AL Cy Young winner regressed in his first season with the Seattle Mariners and then missed the entirety of 2023 recovering from Tommy John surgery.
He was only recently brought back to the majors but so far, so good.
Ray has a 3.98 ERA through four starts with 28 strikeouts in 20.1 IP. That’s a small sample size but is encouraging nonetheless. The fireballing lefty posted a stellar 11.5 K/9 rate in his Cy Young season with the Toronto Blue Jays and has that swing-and-miss juice back.
He fanned seven Detroit Tigers in his last start and nine Cincinnati Reds the outing before that.
Both of those teams are swing-happy but they don’t hold a candle to what the Braves are doing right now.
Atlanta has the fifth-highest K rate this season (24.7%) and the highest strikeout rate versus lefties since the all-star break (34.2%).
San Francisco has already trotted out two southpaws in this series to positive results. Blake Snell struck out a whopping 11 batters in 6.1 IP while Kyle Harrison fanned six in 5.0 IP last night.
For Harrison, who has a 45th-percentile K rate on Baseball Savant, that’s a big night.
The Giants have been increasing Ray’s workload start-to-start and he just logged 105 pitches his last time out. There should be ample opportunities to rack up strikeouts.
Key stat: Atlanta has a 25.9% K rate in 112 combined at-bats against Ray.
Quick pick
Ozuna over 1.5 total bases (+108): Ozuna sold my +305 MLB parlay yesterday by going 1-for-5 with four strikeouts. The other legs (Tarik Skubal over 6.5 strikeouts, Yankees moneyline) cashed with ease.
As annoying as that was I’m going back to the well tonight.
Ozuna had cleared this total in six games prior and is slashing an impressive .333/.421/.552 against left-handed pitching this season.
The designated hitter has the fourth-most home runs (35) and the sixth-highest OPS (.959) in MLB and has seen Ray plenty.
He’s 5-for-20 against the lefty with a double and a home run. Those aren’t earth-shattering numbers but are enough to give me confidence.
And Ray’s biggest flaw, even when he won Cy Young, was giving up hard contact.
Picks made at 10:03 a.m. ET 08/14/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.