The Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers game is heavily featured in today’s prop recommendations.
The pregame narrative: I have plays on sluggers Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman and am fading Brewers starter Colin Rea. Later, I’m also fading Arizona Diamondbacks lefty Eduardo Rodriguez.
Check out why in the best MLB prop bets for August 13.
MLB prop bets
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Best bet: Betts over 1.5 bases (+110)
The bet on Betts is a simple one for me: Enjoy the former MVP at plus money while you can.
Betts returned last night after missing two months and produced two hits, including a bomb.
Despite slumping in June and into July, he was putting up all-star numbers before he went down with a broken hand, with an average north of .300 and a .900-plus OPS.
Betts is an elite hitter who should get a couple of cracks at an average (at best) starter in Rea.
Key stat: Betts’ 157 wRC+ is 11th among players with 300-plus plate appearances.
Quick picks
Freeman over 0.5 RBI (+150): The Dodgers first baseman is once again hitting behind Betts and MVP favourite Shohei Ohtani, creating tremendous value on his RBI props.
It’s especially attractive tonight based on his and Ohtani’s production versus right-handers, and Betts’ ability to get on base at a high clip.
Betts has a .406 OBP on the season and Ohtani has a mark of .411 versus righties.
Freeman is slashing a blistering .309/.417/.532 against RHPs with 12 of his 17 homers, and he has routinely pounded them throughout his career.
Against Rea, a soft-tossing righty who doesn’t miss many bats, I like the top three of this order to capitalize tonight.
Rea under 16.5 outs (-117): There may have been a little blip with Betts and Freeman both out where the Dodgers offence didn’t look spectacular. But it’s back to being scary.
Los Angeles has the best top three in the game and the trio is followed by power hitter Teoscar Hernandez, who may finish his age-31 season with the best year of his career.
This group presents a nightmare for opposing starters, particularly righties who don’t get the platoon advantage versus Ohtani and Freeman.
Rea’s 3.38 ERA is a career-best mark but his xERA, per Baseball Savant, is significantly worse (4.75).
The right-hander has made 22 appearances (three as the bulk guy following an opener) and has a 50% success rate against this line.
Rodriguez under 5.5 Ks (-104): This is a plus matchup versus the Colorado Rockies, who have MLB’s second-highest K rate.
But Rodriguez is making just his second start of the season and had a subpar fastball with no swing-and-miss ability in his season debut.
The caveat: It was against the Cleveland Guardians, a difficult team to retire on strikes. But Rodriguez’s outing was still uninspiring:
- 1 strikeout
- 2 walks
- 2 homers
- 3 swinging strikes over 5.2 innings.
Getting to six Ks is a large leap and this feels like good value after he threw just 65 pitches versus Cleveland.
Picks made at 1:56 p.m. ET on 08/13/2024.
Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.