Paul Skenes gets the ball tonight when the Pittsburgh Pirates take on the Los Angeles Dodgers.
The pregame narrative: Dominating a matchup like this could go a long way in Skenes’ NL Cy Young bid. L.A. is an offensive juggernaut but I still expect the rookie to clear his strikeout total in what should be a tight game.
Check out the full Pirates vs. Dodgers SGP picks for the Aug. 10 matchup.
Pirates vs. Dodgers SGP picks
Go to full Pirates/Dodgers betting markets.
Parlay: Skenes over 6.5 strikeouts + Dodgers +1.5 + Cruz over 0.5 hits(+420)
Skenes over 6.5 strikeouts (-137): Skenes is coming off one of his worst outings of the season.
He gave up two earned runs and only struck out four batters in 5.1 IP against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Yeah … if that’s the floor there’s no wonder this kid is third in Cy Young odds.
Anyhow, I can forgive the low strikeout total.
Arizona has the sixth-lowest K rate this season (20.2%) and the third-lowest since the all-star break (18.3%).
Los Angeles, meanwhile, has the fourth highest K rate since the midsummer classic (26.1%).
Skenes has already faced the Dodgers once and he fanned eight in 5.0 IP. That was in the middle of an eight-game stretch where he cleared this total each time out.
His 32.3% K rate ranks in the 94th percentile on Baseball Savant and he’s 11-3 against this line on the year.
Other parlay picks
Dodgers +1.5 (-195): I like L.A. to keep this close even with Skenes doing his thing.
The Dodgers are 36-21 at home this year, covering this line in 70.17% of those games. They’ll have their own rookie, River Ryan, on the mound and he’s been sensational through three starts.
Ryan has a 1.72 ERA and L.A. is 3-0 when he’s got the ball.
That’s a small sample size but he was also great in the minors this year, sporting a 2.22 ERA with an 11.8 K/9 rate.
Skenes is 6-1 as a starter but Pittsburgh has failed to cover as 1.5-run favourites in five of his last seven starts.
Cruz over 0.5 hits (-190): Cruz is another player Pirates fans should be hyped about.
The 25-year-old, 6-foot-7 shortstop has the tools to be great even if he is streaky at the plate. Streaky can be a bad thing, but right now, he’s red-hot.
Cruz is batting .500 in August and has six hits in his last two games.
He really struggles to hit left-handed pitching but is batting a solid .288 against righties, which Ryan is.
Picks as of 1:16 p.m. on 08/10/2024.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.