Zach Edey is the biggest star in tonight’s national championship game — literally and figuratively — but I’m looking elsewhere on the prop market.
The pregame narrative: Opposite Edey, I think UConn Huskies centre Donovan Clingan is worth fading on the glass. Also, Purdue Boilermakers guard Braden Smith has an attainable number for his points/assists prop.
Check out my Purdue vs. UConn prop bets for the national championship game on April 8.
Purdue vs. UConn prop bets
[Best Bet]: Smith over 17.5 points/assists (-113)
Let’s get one negative thought out of the way first: Smith is coming off his worst game of the season, scoring just three points on 1-for-9 shooting to go with six assists.
There aren’t many ways to spin-zone that performance into a positive. So instead, let’s step back and look at a larger sample of Smith’s performances.
Over his past 20 games, Smith has cashed this prop 15 times. He’s averaging 12.0 points and 7.9 assists in that span.
Purdue may run its offence through Edey, but everything starts with Smith. The sophomore point guard assists on 38.3% of the Boilermakers’ buckets when he’s on the floor, which is the 11th-highest assist rate in the country, per KenPom.
Oh, and Smith shoots 43.0% from 3-point range.
I’m not going to let one dud game discourage me from backing Smith. He’s a sharpshooter, a prominent ball-handler, and he’s been excellent against this number.
Key stat: Smith is averaging 12.0 points and 7.5 assists on the season (19.5 PA).
Quick pick
Clingan under 7.5 rebounds (-109): Clingan came on late as a scorer in Saturday’s Final Four matchup, but Alabama did a great job neutralizing him on the glass.
Clingan was frequently lured out of the paint on high ball screens and forced to close out on shooters. He finished with just five rebounds.
There’s no guarantee that Purdue will deploy a similar strategy tonight, but that shouldn’t matter. The 7-foot-2 Clingan will be at a rare size disadvantage against the 7-foot-4 Edey.
Purdue’s big man is second in the country in rebounds per game (12.2), and he’s averaging 15.4 RPG in the NCAA tournament.
This isn’t just about fading Clingan against Edey, though. UConn has many other capable rebounders who can eat up boards if Clingan finds himself even slightly out of position.
All five Huskies starters average 4.7 RPG or more.
Picks made at 12:10 p.m. on 04/08/24.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.